Market Efficiency, Predictions and Returns

Decision Market Predictions: Separating Efficiency and Bias

Information markets provide a revolutionary mechanism for revealing aggregate knowledge. They continue to gain popularity in academic circles and continue to prove themselves through successful prediction for practical applications. Policy makers have shown to be wary of depending upon their results exclusively for decision-making, but there is evidence that information markets could be used fo...

Increasing market efficiency: Evolution of cross-correlations of stock returns

We analyse the temporal changes in the cross correlations of returns on the New York Stock Exchange. We show that lead-lag relationships between daily returns of stocks vanished in less than twenty years. We have found that even for high frequency data the asymmetry of time dependent cross-correlation functions has a decreasing tendency, the position of their peaks are shifted towards the origi...

Equity, Efficiency and Increasing Returns

Increasing Returns and Economic Efficiency

This paper argues that, from the viewpoint of Pareto optimality, the industries with increasing returns are under-expanded relative to those without increasing returns and those with higher degrees of increasing returns are under-expanded relative to those with lower degrees. Ignoring administrative and indirect (such as rent-seeking) costs, subsidies on goods produced under conditions of (high...

roductivity, Net Returns and Efficiency: Land and Market Reform in Vietnamese Rice Production

Extensive land and market reform in Vietnam has resulted in dramatic increases in rice output over the past thirty years. The land and market reforms in agriculture were pervasive, moving the system of rice production from commune-based public ownership and control to one with effective private property rights over land and farm assets, competitive domestic markets and individual decision makin...